Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0075
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jan 18 2023 23:48:14

ACUS11 KWNS 182348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182347=20
MSZ000-TNZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-190145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0075
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

Areas affected...Southwest Tennessee...Mississippi...Northeast
Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 25...

Valid 182347Z - 190145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 25 continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat including a potential for wind damage and
a brief tornado will likely continue for a few more hours this
evening. WW issuance appears unlikely to the east of the current
watch.

DISCUSSION...The WSR-88D from Little Rock shows a large area of
thunderstorms, with a few embedded strong storms from northeast
Louisiana extending north-northeastward across eastern Arkansas. RAP
analysis shows weak instability located ahead of the line, where
MLCAPE is estimated between 500 and 1000 J/kg. The line is being
supported by a subtle shortwave trough moving through the lower
Mississippi Valley. The associated mid-level jet is located in the
southern Plains with the eastern edge of this jet moving through the
lower Mississippi Valley, where the jet is enhancing deep-layer
shear. This combined with large-scale ascent and instability  should
continue to be sufficient to continue the isolated severe threat
this evening. Cells on the eastern edge of this large area of
convection with access to the stronger instability could become
severe. Wind damage will be the primary threat, although a tornado
will also be possible.

...Broyles.. 01/18/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_bvsEooOOD1hFEKRKCHcie2Fu2THZJfRUiTczeqcaJLzXrCxLGL0p4QvQ2E6KVkMybGdHoxsj=
SG3wx0OiaUNl7ClcMA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   34778891 35258905 35328950 34929005 33329096 32229167
            31779191 31589190 31469177 31389123 31809043 33468939
            34778891=20


=3D =3D =3D
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