Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0073
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jan 18 2023 18:54:11

ACUS11 KWNS 181854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181853=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-190000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0073
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Kansas/southeastern
Nebraska into southwestern Iowa and far northwestern Missouri

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation=20

Valid 181853Z - 190000Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain and mixed precipitation with rates of
0.05-0.15 in/hr will continue with moderate precipitation over the
next several hours. A transition to heavy snow and rates of 1+ in/hr
is expected later this evening farther north.

DISCUSSION...As of 1840 UTC, regional radar and surface analysis
showed a broad area of moderate to heavy precipitation associated
with a surface low across the central Plains and Midwest. Recent
surface obs across southeastern NE and northeastern KS indicate
freezing rain and mixed-phase precipitation is ongoing northeast of
the surface low with rates of 0.05 to 0.15 in/hr. Area RAP soundings
show moderate warm advection ongoing ahead of the low supporting
broad isentropic ascent and slight warming in the 1-3 km layer.
0.5-1 C temperatures in this layer will support moderate to locally
heavy mixed-phase precipitation and freezing rain for the next
several hours. A transition to snow may develop later this afternoon
into the early evening as warm advection weakens and dynamic cooling
reduce column temperatures below freezing. However, the best dynamic
lift will likely shift north keeping higher snow rates shorter in
duration.

Farther north across eastern/northern NE/IA, a deeper reservoir of
cold air at the surface and drier mid-levels will likely favor a
faster transition to all snow coincident with the strongest dynamic
lift. Here, brief mixed precip/freezing rain and eventual snow rates
greater than 1 in/hr are likely late this afternoon and through the
evening hours.

...Lyons/Grams.. 01/18/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-kSK1WoMY2M0uCTYZwCYv27egPcgrNdozdstwVLYZb-e5Il4yr_eMAQLPY-6qQ5bsgbEwRNXb=
Px0tcd3W0W50jxmZvw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   40039530 39749594 39619684 39639768 39919834 40139842
            40429836 40659827 40959793 41369696 42089558 42369492
            42489370 42459321 42139263 41509299 41079345 40729402
            40039530=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.