Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jan 18 2023 17:31:11

ACUS02 KWNS 181731
SWODY2
SPC AC 181729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST-CENTRAL INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts are possible from eastern
Indiana through central and northern Ohio on Thursday afternoon to
early evening.

....Synopsis...
A mid-level low initially over northern MO will move east-northeast
to the Lower Great Lakes by early Friday morning.  An intense speed
max (110 kt at 500 mb) will move through the base of a larger-scale
trough.  A cyclone over north-central IL will become occluded during
the period as an attendant front sweeps east across the OH Valley
and southern Appalachians/Southeast U.S.

....IN/OH...
Scattered to widespread showers early Thursday morning in
association with a warm-air advection will quickly depart the region
by midday.  The primary mid-level vorticity lobe will rotate through
the base of the trough from the MS River on the MO/IL border east to
the IN/OH border during the 15z to 21z period.  Cold air advection
in the mid levels coupled with some boundary layer heating (via
gradual erosion of clouds and insolation) will act to weakly
destabilize the airmass from eastern IN into OH.  A cluster of
low-topped convection will likely develop by early-mid afternoon
over IN.  Long hodographs indicate fast-moving storms and this
activity will likely spread into northern OH by early evening.
Severe gusts appear to be the primary severe hazard, but small to
marginally severe hail and/or a brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled
out.

....AL/GA...
Model guidance continues to indicate a remnant band of convection
will continue across the TN/AL/GA vicinity early in the morning.
This band will likely weaken/dissipate by late morning as it
continues to move into an airmass more hostile for deep convection.
Nonetheless, scant instability may yield enough buoyancy for a few
flashes of lightning and perhaps a strong gust.  The overall threat
appears too low to warrant low-severe probabilities at this time.

...Smith.. 01/18/2023

$$

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