Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jan 18 2023 08:09:18

FOUS30 KWBC 180809
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 18 2023 - 12Z Thu Jan 19 2023

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER ARKANSAS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVER
VALLEYS...

Models remain consistent in showing strengthening southerly to
south south westerly low level flow off the western Gulf ahead of
the strong height falls pushing into the Central to Southern
Plains on Thursday.  This will support an expanding area of
pre-frontal convection Thursday morning from far northeast Texas,
across northern Louisiana into southern Arkansas in an axis of
increasing PW values, reaching 2 to 3 standard deviations above
the mean.  This activity will then press northeastward into
portion of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley
through Thursday afternoon.  During the first half of the day 1
period, there will be potential for training of cells parallel to
the strengthening low level southerly to southwesterly flow.  The
slight risk area was drawn to depict the area of best training
potential during Thursday and corresponds where the HREF
neighborhood probabilities are highest for 2"+ totals day 1.=20
These high 2"+ day 1 probabilities occur primarily during the
first half of the day 1 period, with probabilities for 2"+ totals
decreasing significantly after 0000 UTC Friday when the overall
progression of any convection is expected to increase and
subsequently decrease the threat of runoff issues.  The biggest
changes made to the previous outlook for this period was to trim
the slight risk area approximately 80-100 miles to the west from
its previous location across central Kentucky to west central TN
to better match where the HREF probabilities are highest and where
the best training potential will be early day 1.  The marginal
risk area was also trimmed to the west by approximately 50-90
miles from the Mid Ohio Valley into the Middle Tennessee Valley.

Oravec


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 19 2023 - 12Z Fri Jan 20 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Oravec

Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!81Z8g9nGNjCD36rMNzfcFPIzo5y_31BjIFaJEXZshQNW=
f8ZBKWmj-_54N9LG3dultC2DgXUNGGF27CRNf_jeMw9h6i4$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!81Z8g9nGNjCD36rMNzfcFPIzo5y_31BjIFaJEXZshQNW=
f8ZBKWmj-_54N9LG3dultC2DgXUNGGF27CRNf_jeqKHBn7s$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!81Z8g9nGNjCD36rMNzfcFPIzo5y_31BjIFaJEXZshQNW=
f8ZBKWmj-_54N9LG3dultC2DgXUNGGF27CRNf_jepkPR5pI$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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