Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jan 18 2023 06:52:10 ACUS02 KWNS 180652 SWODY2 SPC AC 180650 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OHIO... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two are possible across far northwest Indiana and western/central Ohio. ....Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be centered over IA early Thursday morning, before continuing northeastward through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, spreading eastward from the Mid MS Valley eastward across the OH and TN Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day. Primary surface low will take a similar path as the upper cyclone while an attendant cold front pushes eastward across the OH Valley. A secondary, triple-point low will precede this cold front, beginning the period near the IN/OH/KY border intersection before moving eastward while weakening. Another cold front will extend southwestward from this low, extending through eastern KY, middle TN, northern/western AL, and into southern MS early Thursday morning. Both the low and cold front are expected to progress eastward throughout the day. ....Northeast IN...Southern Lower MI...Much of OH... Warm-air advection will contribute to showers and isolated thunderstorms over OH Thursday morning. This precipitation should clear out by mid-morning, with clear skies allowing for diurnal heating across the region ahead of the approaching cold front. Despite limited low-level moisture, this diurnal heating coupled with cold temperatures aloft will likely result in air mass destabilization. Consequently, low-topped thunderstorms are possible along the front during the afternoon and evening, beginning in far northeast IN and continuing eastward into southern Lower MI and across OH. Strong mid/upper-level flow will be in place, favoring fast storm motion and the potential for a few damaging wind gusts with the deeper, more persistent storms. Some low-probability tornado threat exists as well, although this threat will be tempered by the largely veered surface winds. ....Southeast... Modest low-level moisture will be in place ahead of the cold front moving across the Southeast, which is expected to extend from middle TN southwestward through southern AL early Thursday morning. Despite low 60s dewpoints, buoyancy will be limited ahead of the front, tempered by warm low/mid-level temperatures. Large-scale forcing will be limited as well, and the combination of these factors will likely limit overall storm strength. ...Mosier.. 01/18/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .