Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jan 18 2023 01:01:34

ACUS01 KWNS 180101
SWODY1
SPC AC 180100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2023

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening through tonight across
parts of the southern and central High Plains, and from Oklahoma
into Arkansas. No severe weather is expected.

....DISCUSSION...
Southwest flow at mid-levels will remain in the south-central U.S.
tonight as an upper-level trough moves eastward into the southern
High Plains. Ahead of the trough, increasing large-scale ascent and
steep mid-level lapse rates may be sufficient for isolated
thunderstorm development from the western Texas Panhandle northward
into eastern Colorado, western Kansas and southern Nebraska.
Instability in these areas will be too weak for a severe threat
through tonight. Further to the east from Oklahoma into Arkansas,
isolated thunderstorms may also develop tonight. This convection
will be related to warm advection and should not pose a severe
threat. Elsewhere across the continental United States,
thunderstorms are not expected through daybreak Wednesday.

...Broyles.. 01/18/2023

$$

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