Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jan 17 2023 17:32:02 ACUS02 KWNS 171731 SWODY2 SPC AC 171730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from far east Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys on Wednesday. ....Synopsis... An upper-level trough will be in the process of ejecting into the southern Plains early Wednesday. This feature is expected to strengthen through the period. A mid-level jet of near 100 kts is expected to evolve within parts of the Mid-South and into the lower Ohio Valley. At the surface, a low pressure system will initially be located in southwestern Kansas. This low will move northeastward along with its parent trough. A secondary, weaker surface low is also forecast to develop in the lower Ohio Valley later in the day. A Pacific cold front will generally be the focus for convection across the Mid-South into the Southeast. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints are expected to advect northward ahead of the boundary as wind fields intensify. ....East TX...Lower/Mid MS Valley...TN Valley...Southeast... Some early convection appears possible in parts of the region, though modest capping should limit the overall extent of this early activity. Some guidance does depict more isolated/cellular activity ahead of the front by late morning. However, stronger cooling aloft will be offset from this activity and updrafts may struggle to maintain intensity. By the afternoon, stronger forcing and some surface heating will allow stronger storms to develop along the cold front. Lapse rates aloft are expected to be moderate (around 7-7.5 C/km) which will limit overall buoyancy to 500-1000 J/kg in most areas. Strong shear will support organized storms. Wind damage is expected to be the primary hazard, but a couple tornadoes also appear possible given the enlarged low-level hodographs present. Areas of eastern Arkansas/northwest Mississippi/western Tennessee will have the best overlap of buoyancy and forcing which could lead to a local maximum in wind damage potential. ....Lower Ohio Valley... Despite more limited instability/buoyancy, very strong wind fields at low/mid-levels will promote wind damage potential with strongly forced convection. The risk for wind damage will quickly drop off with northward/eastward extent. ....Parts of eastern Kansas... Very cold temperatures aloft will be present beneath the upper low. Moisture is expected to be quite limited and storm initiation is not certain. However, profiles would support some risk for at least small hail if convection can develop. ...Wendt.. 01/17/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .