Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 17 2023 16:24:02

ACUS01 KWNS 171623
SWODY1
SPC AC 171622

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2023

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

....Discussion...
A shortwave trough over the Lower CO Valley will deepen as it moves
east across the southern Rockies into the southern/central High
Plains by early morning, with a lee surface cyclone anchored over
southeast CO before shifting into southwest KS late. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon/evening within the
zone of ascent preceding the shortwave trough, mainly over the Four
Corners area. This regime will spread into the central Great Plains
tonight, where scant elevated buoyancy should support sporadic
lightning activity. Farther southeast, low-level warm theta-e
advection should support elevated thunder potential late in the
period in the eastern OK/northeast TX/western AR vicinity. An
increasingly elongated, straight-line hodograph within the
cloud-bearing layer does yield concern for hail production. While
small hail looks plausible, meager buoyancy through 12Z will
mitigate a severe hail highlight.

...Grams/Lyons.. 01/17/2023

$$

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