Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 17 2023 12:27:31

ACUS01 KWNS 171227
SWODY1
SPC AC 171225

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2023

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.

....Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough over the lower CO River Valley this
morning will move east-northeastward to near the CO/KS border by the
end of the period.  Associated surface lee cyclogenesis is expected
across southeast CO this afternoon in advance of this trough.  In
response to the lee cyclogenesis, a surface cold front (in the wake
of a midlevel trough over the Great Lakes) will stall this afternoon
across LA/southeast TX, and then move northward overnight as a warm
front.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon/evening near
the Four Corners, where surface heating occurs in cloud breaks, in
the zone of ascent preceding the lower CO River Valley trough.
Isolated lightning flashes may also occur overnight toward western
KS with weak elevated convection.  Otherwise, low-level moistening
in a warm advection regime will become sufficient for elevated
thunderstorms near the end of the period across central and eastern
OK.

...Thompson/Dean.. 01/17/2023

$$

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