Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 17 2023 09:24:59

ACUS48 KWNS 170924
SWOD48
SPC AC 170923

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2023

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Upper pattern is expected to remain active through next weekend into
early next week as a series of intense shortwave troughs progress
across the CONUS. The first shortwave is forecast to progress across
the Southwest on D4/Friday and into the southern Plains on
D5/Saturday. This southern-stream shortwave may phase with a
northern-stream shortwave expected to move through the Canadian
Prairie Provinces on D4/Friday and into western Ontario and the
Upper Midwest on D5/Saturday. This evolution would result in deep
troughing across the central CONUS with strong mid-level flow
extending from central Mexico through the OH Valley and
Mid-Atlantic. However, offshore low-level trajectories will preclude
return flow, keeping the better low-level moisture confined to the
immediate Gulf coast and FL.

Some severe potential may manifest over the FL and Southeast coast
on D6/Sunday as the southern-stream shortwave trough ejects out
across the Mid MS and TN Valleys and its attendant surface low moves
across the Southeast. Predictability concerns preclude introducing
an outlook area.

Recent medium-range guidance shows another deep upper trough moving
into the Plains early next week. Model variability limits overall
forecast confidence, but some severe potential may develop across
the Plains and Southeast early next week if this forecast pattern is
realized.

...Mosier.. 01/17/2023

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