Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 17 2023 08:17:58

ACUS03 KWNS 170817
SWODY3
SPC AC 170816

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2023

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
ALABAMA THURSDAY MORNING...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts are possible
across eastern Alabama Thursday morning.

....Synopsis...
A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be centered over the IA/IL
border early Thursday morning before then progressing northeastward
across the Upper Great Lakes region. Strong mid-level flow will
accompany this system, spreading eastward from the OH and TN Valleys
into the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day.

Triple-point low associated with this cyclone will likely be
centered over the IN/KY/OH border intersection, with a cold front
extending southwestward through eastern KY, eastern TN, and northern
/western AL. This low is expected to weaken as it moves eastward,
with potential secondary surface cyclogenesis later in the day
farther east across northern VA.

Modest low-level moisture will precede this front, particularly
across the Southeast, but warm mid-level temperatures are expected
to limit buoyancy. Even so, isolated thunderstorm development is
still possible along the front Thursday morning into Thursday
afternoon. Storm intensity is expected to gradually decrease
throughout the day as the parent cyclone becomes increasingly
displaced from the low-level moisture and buoyancy, and warm
mid-level temperatures limit deep convection. Consequently, the
strongest storms will likely occur during the early morning across
eastern AL, where a few isolated damaging gusts are possible.

...Mosier.. 01/17/2023

$$

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