Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jan 17 2023 07:00:28 ACUS02 KWNS 170700 SWODY2 SPC AC 170659 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from far east Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys on Wednesday. ....Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone will likely be centered over the central High Plains early Wednesday morning, before continuing northeastward across the central Plains throughout the day and into the Mid MS Valley by early Thursday morning. Strong flow will extend throughout the base of this cyclone, with 100+ kt at 500 mb expected to stretch from north-central TX into southern/central MO and adjacent western IL. Primary surface low associated with this cyclone will follow a similar trajectory as the upper cyclone, moving across KS into the Mid MO Valley. A secondary, triple-point low initially southeast of the primary low will be more influential on the severe weather risk. This low is forecast to begin the period over north-central TX before progressing quickly northeastward across central AR and the Mid-South. As it progresses northeastward, a dryline/Pacific front will surge eastward across central/east TX and the Lower/Mid MS Valley, interacting with the moist air mass in place over the region. ....East TX...Lower/Mid MS Valley...TN Valley...Southeast... Previously mentioned triple-point low is expected to begin the period over north-central TX, with a warm front extending eastward from this low through the ArkLaTex and into central MS. The airmass south of this front should be characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. This moist airmass will move northward in tandem with the northeastward progressing surface low. By 00Z Thursday, this low is forecast to be centered near the MO/IL/KY border intersection, with the cold front stretching from this low southwestward across eastern AR and north-central LA and the warm front arcing across western KY into middle TN. Elevated thunderstorms will likely develop early Wednesday morning within the warm-air advection regime across east TX, northwest LA and southern AR. Buoyancy will be modest but a few organized storms capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible. These elevated storms are expected to continue northward into the Mid-South, while additional surface-based development begins along the cold front across southern AR, western LA, and far east TX. Given the forcing along the front, a linear mode is favored with this development, and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. A few line-embedded/QLCS tornadoes are also possible. This line of storms will then continue eastward across the Lower MS Valley throughout the evening and MS/AL overnight. The threat for damaging wind gust and line-embedded/QLCS tornadoes will persist as this line moves eastward. Farther north, continued moisture advection is expected to bring low 60s dewpoints as far north as southern IL and far western KY Wednesday evening, ahead of the approaching surface low. Ascent attendant to this low coupled with favorable low-level moisture may support a few surface-based storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado from southeast MO/northeast AR into western KY/western TN. ....Southeast KS... A brief window may exist for a few low-topped thunderstorms within the narrowing warm sector near the primary surface low Wednesday afternoon/evening. Strong heating ahead the low should bring temperatures into the upper 50s amid dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s. These conditions coupled with cold temperatures aloft should result in modest buoyancy and a few isolated thunderstorms. Mid to upper level flow will be strong, but low-level flow will likely be weak and veered. As such, these low-level conditions are currently expected to preclude severe thunderstorm development. ...Mosier.. 01/17/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .