Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jan 16 2023 16:30:57 ACUS02 KWNS 161630 SWODY2 SPC AC 161629 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Tuesday. ....Synopsis... An upper trough over the Southwest will pivot east to the central High Plains and southern Rockies vicinity by Wednesday morning. Cold midlevel temperatures and moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow will support weak elevated instability and a few lightning flashes will be possible across the Four Corners region. This elevated instability will spread east into portions of the central High Plains overnight atop a sub-freezing boundary-layer. A flash or two could accompany winter precipitation across parts of southwest NE and northwest KS in an area of strong ascent Tuesday night into early Wednesday. However, the probability of thunder with this activity is too low to include a 10 percent general thunder delineation. Further east, an upper ridge will slide east toward the MS Valley and southerly low-level flow will bring Gulf moisture northward across coastal and eastern TX into the central Gulf coast vicinity, especially overnight into Wednesday morning. While increasing boundary-layer moisture will aid in weak instability, warm midlevel temperatures appear to limit convective potential through early Wednesday morning. Enough elevated instability and large-scale forcing may exist near a warm front across northern OK to produce a couple of lightning flashes the last hour or two of the period, but probabilities are too low to include a 10 percent general thunder delineation. ...Leitman.. 01/16/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .