Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 16 2023 12:37:56

ACUS01 KWNS 161237
SWODY1
SPC AC 161236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2023

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms will be possible across the Iowa vicinity today,
and today into tonight across parts of California and the Southwest.

....Synopsis...
An occluded low-midlevel cyclone will move northeastward across IA
today to WI tonight, downstream from a series of shortwave troughs
progressing inland over central/southern CA and the lower CO River
Valley.  Isolated thunderstorms will be possible with the lead
shortwave trough moving east-northeastward over CA/southern
NV/southern UT/northwest AZ today, and through tonight into the
Mogollon Rim in AZ as the second shortwave trough reaches peak
amplitude over southern CA.

....Eastern IA vicinity this afternoon...
The main concern in the IA area today is the degree of low-level
moistening and surface heating, with large discrepancies persisting
in short-term model forecast (e.g., the cooler NAM versus the warmer
RAP/HRRR).  Wind profiles will be favorable for low-topped
supercells if substantial buoyancy (SBCAPE near 500 J/kg) develops
beneath the midlevel dry slot, though this will rely on surface
temperatures/dewpoints in the low-mid 50s.  The window of
opportunity will be small at best with a marginal/narrow warm
sector, so will defer to later updates (with additional
observational data) regarding the addition of low severe
probabilities.

...Thompson/Jewell.. 01/16/2023

$$

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