Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jan 16 2023 08:27:54 ACUS03 KWNS 160827 SWODY3 SPC AC 160826 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from east Texas across northern/central Louisiana and southern Arkansas into western Mississippi on Wednesday. ....Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to begin the period centered over the central High Plains before then progressing eastward across KS while further maturing. By early Thursday morning, this cyclone will likely be centered over the Mid MO Valley. Primary surface low associated with this cyclone will follow a similar trajectory across KS into the Mid MO Valley. A secondary, triple-point low initially southeast of the primary low will be more influential on the severe weather risk. This low is expected to be centered over north-central TX early Wednesday morning before moving northeastward throughout the day across central AR and into the Mid-South. As it progresses northeastward, a dryline/Pacific front will surge eastward across central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley, interacting with the moist air mass in place over the region. ....East TX...Lower MS Valley...Mid-South... Dewpoints are expected to be 60s across much of the region early Wednesday morning, with mid 60s covering much of east TX and western LA. Thunderstorm development will likely begin on the Pacific front during the early afternoon across east TX, continuing eastward into southern AR and much of LA throughout the evening. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (and resulting weak lapse rates) will temper buoyancy areawide, but robust wind fields should still support strong to severe thunderstorms along the front. Primary risk with these storms will be damaging wind gusts. Uncertainty remains regarding open warm sector development. Warm mid-level temperatures mentioned above may cap the airmass, precluding deep convection away from the front. Given the displacement of the warm sector well to the southeast of the primary cyclone, large-scale forcing for ascent will be negligible. Additionally, low-level destabilization will be driven primarily by diurnal heating. However, this same heating could lead to mixing and reduced dewpoints/buoyancy. All of these factors suggest limited potential for open warm sector deep convection. That being said, robust wind fields support all severe hazards with any warm-sector supercells that can develop and mature. ...Mosier.. 01/16/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .