Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 16 2023 05:48:20

ACUS01 KWNS 160548
SWODY1
SPC AC 160546

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2023

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Appreciable severe-weather potential is not evident today.

....Discussion...
As an upper low off the East Coast drifts slowly northward toward
the Canadian Maritimes, and an upstream ridge moves slowly eastward
across the Appalachians, a more progressive pattern will prevail
farther west.

Here, a short-wave trough crossing the mid Missouri Valley early,
will shift northeastward to the Upper Great Lakes, while
second/complex area of troughing, initially near and just off the
West Coast, digs southeastward across central and southern
California, likely reaching the Colorado River Valley by the end of
the period/Tuesday morning.

Showers and embedded thunderstorms are forecast across southern
California and into the Desert Southwest, as several upper
disturbances -- and an associated surface low, to cross this region
through the period.  Meanwhile, showers and a few thunderstorms are
also expected From the Iowa vicinity southeastward across the mid
Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, as the aforementioned central
U.S. upper trough, and its accompanying surface low, traverse this
region.  Appreciable severe risk is not anticipated in either of
these areas of enhanced convective potential.

...Goss/Bentley.. 01/16/2023

$$

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