Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 16 2023 03:47:53

AWUS01 KWNH 160347
FFGMPD
CAZ000-161200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0044
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1047 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2023

Areas affected...Central California...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160345Z - 161200Z

SUMMARY...Light to moderate showers to increase into scattered
more intense showers/shallow convection as surface low/deep
layered moisture flux increases over the next few hours, with up
to .5"/hr rates probable.  Given fully saturated soils, continued
flash flooding/mudslide are possible.

DISCUSSION...Current RADAR mosaic across Central CA depicts a
broad shield of light to occasionally moderate shower activity
within broad warm air advection regime as low level cyclone
advances toward the San Fran Bay area.  CIRA LPW and VWP 850 to
700 layer winds depict this broad south to south-southeasterly
flow within a narrow ribbon of increased moisture particularity at
or below 700mb.  This is supporting the .1-.2"/hr totals seen
across the region.  Winds are expected to strengthen (40kts+) and
veer increasing convergence along the frontal boundary but also
increasing orographic ascent across the Santa Lucia and S Santa
Cruz mountains.  More isolated embedded convective cores, hourly
rates of .4-.5" are probable in those terrain areas, with
additional totals of 1-1.25" possible.  Fully saturated soil
conditions and ongoing flooding will be enhanced for possible
flash flooding and mudslides through 09-10z.

Further west, the surface wave will continue eastward and
favorable secondary development/pivot is expected in the vicinity
of Santa Cruz peninsula and expand favorable downstream
southwesterly upslope flow int the central lower foothills of the
Sierra Nevada Range. Similar strong orographic ascent with
isolated embedded shallow convective cores should allow for a few
hours of enhanced heavy rainfall up to .5" with some totals of
2-3" possible through 12z.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8E5kxIA7XBxjSfxQDt8p0cPMAqSQCRfLawyYfOpqLuKGxA1mXQOnH6OtGk7nYZhYSBlV=
dBiClyo2r4SwAu8OMcZoJwI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...MTR...STO...

ATTN...RFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38712126 38242039 37351944 36341844 35871848=20
            35871879 36451920 36891971 37182034 37132061=20
            36702064 35832005 35381997 34772009 34602063=20
            35662142 36952234 37912272 38402230=20

=3D =3D =3D
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