Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 16 2023 00:50:50

ACUS01 KWNS 160050
SWODY1
SPC AC 160049

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2023

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
A few lightning flashes may evolve late in the period over the Iowa
vicinity.

....Discussion...
A short-wave mid-level trough will continue to move northeastward
across the central Plains toward the mid Missouri Valley, roughly in
tandem with an associated surface low.  A focused zone of low-level
warm advection/QG ascent just ahead of these features and
weak/elevated destabilization just east of the mid Missouri Valley
may combine to permit development of deep moist convection across
the Iowa area.  A few lightning flashes may evolve within this zone
within the last couple of hours of the period, warranting inclusion
of a small 10% thunder area for this update.

...Goss.. 01/16/2023

$$

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