Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 15 2023 19:38:48

ACUS01 KWNS 151938
SWODY1
SPC AC 151937

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2023

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

....20z Update...

The previous outlook remains on track and no changes are needed with
the 20z update. See previous discussion below for details.

...Leitman.. 01/15/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2023/

....Discussion...
A quiet pattern for lightning production is expected to persist
through tonight, with thunderstorm probabilities appearing to be
less than 10 percent.

A lightning flash or two is possible this afternoon in lower
elevations around the Four Corners area attendant to a shortwave
trough ejecting towards the southern Rockies. Amplification of this
wave is anticipated tonight as it ejects across the central Great
Plains towards the Lower MO Valley. Given the poor low-level
moisture sampled by 12Z soundings this morning over the central
states to the western Gulf Coast, elevated thunder potential in the
warm conveyor region ahead of the wave will likely hold off until
after 12Z.

Low-topped convection will also redevelop tonight ahead of yet
another shortwave trough impinging on the central CA coast.
Instability is expected to remain negligible through early morning
and casts doubt on lightning occurring along the coast prior to 12Z.

$$

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