Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 15 2023 16:36:20

ACUS02 KWNS 151636
SWODY2
SPC AC 151634

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2023

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.

....Mid-MS Valley vicinity...

A compact mid/upper shortwave trough and developing upper low will
lift northeast from the central Plains to the upper Great Lakes on
Monday. A surface low attendant to the shortwave trough will be
located over southeast NE early Monday, while tracking northeast
into WI by early Tuesday. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will
overspread the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys into the upper Great Lakes
vicinity, while southerly low-level flow facilitates minor
boundary-layer moistening into IL/IA and vicinity.

Quite a bit of spread exists in forecast guidance regarding surface
temps/dewpoints. The HRRR is the most aggressive with low 50s T/Tds
into central IA/northwest IL. The other end of the spectrum is the
NAM with temps and dewpoints about 10-13 degrees cooler. Given that
dewpoints in the 50s are still in the vicinity of the TX Coast as of
Sunday morning, it appears unlikely the HRRR solution will be
realized as substantial airmass modification would be needed. As a
result, destabilization is expected to be very weak with little if
any surface-based instability expected. Furthermore, some areas
across the southeast MN/northern IA vicinity still have quite a bit
of snow pack. Additionally, timing of the ejecting wave appears
ill-timed with peak heating, with strongest ascent likely during the
morning and early afternoon before spreading northeast.

Given large model spread, little signal amid machine
learning/ensemble guidance and very low probability of surface-based
convection, the Marginal risk has been removed.

...Leitman.. 01/15/2023

$$

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