Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 15 2023 11:23:47

ACUS01 KWNS 151123
SWODY1
SPC AC 151122

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0522 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2023

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected today.

....Synopsis...
Within the primary flow stream across the southern CONUS, an
embedded shortwave trough will move quickly east-northeastward from
the Four Corners today to the central Plains overnight.  Associated
lee cyclogenesis is expected near the KS/CO border later today, and
this cyclone will progress to near extreme southeast NE by the end
of the period.  Within the warm sector of the developing cyclone, a
partially modified air mass will spread northward from the western
Gulf of Mexico, though boundary-layer dewpoints will likely not
exceed 45-50 F near and south of the cyclone by 16/12z.  Some
forcing for ascent and minimal buoyancy suggest that isolated
lightning flashes could occur, but the overall thunderstorm threat
is quite low across the lower-middle MO River Valley.

During the day, near and just west of the Four Corners, very
isolated lightning flashes may occur with low-topped convection in
the left-exit region of the midlevel jet.  However, the thunderstorm
threat appears too low for an outlook area.

...Thompson/Jewell.. 01/15/2023

$$

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