Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 15 2023 08:11:45

ACUS03 KWNS 150811
SWODY3
SPC AC 150810

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2023

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorm are possible early Wednesday morning from
northeast Texas into southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana.
Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected.

....Synopsis...
A belt of enhanced westerly/southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to
stretch from off the southern CA Coast across the southern CONUS
into the Mid-Atlantic States early Tuesday morning, supported by a
pair of cyclones. The eastern cyclone will likely begin the period
over the Upper Great Lakes, before then moving northeastward through
southern Ontario. The western cyclone is expected to centered over
southern NV Tuesday morning. This cyclone will likely devolve into
an open wave as it moves eastward through the Southwest/Four
Corners. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this system,
which could contribute to enough buoyancy for a few lightning
flashes. Current expectation is that thunderstorm coverage over the
region will remain less than 10 percent.

A relatively moist air mass will already be in place across the
Lower MS Valley, but supplemental moistening is likely throughout
day. Moisture advection is also expected farther west from the TX
Coastal Plain into central and east TX. By early Wednesday morning,
60s dewpoints will likely be in place from south TX eastward through
the Lower MS Valley. Low-level southerly flow will increase within
this environment, contributing to the potential for a few elevated
thunderstorms within this warm-air advection regime from northeast
TX into southern AR and northern LA.

...Mosier.. 01/15/2023

$$

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