Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jan 14 2023 19:38:12

ACUS01 KWNS 141938
SWODY1
SPC AC 141936

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2023

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A PORTION OF
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
A couple low-topped supercells are possible in the San Joaquin
Valley of central California between about 5 to 9 PM PST, and may
yield a brief weak tornado.

....20z Update...

The ongoing forecast remains on track and no changes are necessary
with the 20z update. A couple of briefly strong/severe storms will
be possible late this afternoon/evening. For more details, see the
previous discussion below.

...Leitman.. 01/14/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2023/

....San Joaquin Valley...
A broad rain swath across the Central Valley to the central CA coast
will shift east within the warm conveyor region ahead of a shortwave
trough that is west of the CA/OR border area. In its wake, a
short-duration period of weak boundary-layer heating coupled with
cooling mid-level temperatures/steepening lapse rates will aid in
scattered low-topped convection redeveloping by early evening.
Low-level winds during this time frame should be in the process of
weakening while also becoming veered towards the west, but
marginally adequate 0-1 km SRH may persist in the eastern portion of
the valley. Speed shear above 800 mb may prove adequate for a couple
discrete cells with weak mid-level updraft rotation. A funnel cloud
or two, with potential for a brief weak tornado, along with small
hail are the most likely hazards.

$$

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