Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 15 2023 00:43:44

ACUS01 KWNS 150043
SWODY1
SPC AC 150041

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2023

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA...

....SUMMARY...
A brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out over parts of the
California Central Valley prior to midnight.

....California Central Valley...
Despite cloud cover which has hindered any appreciable diurnal
heating/destabilization across central California, meager
instability (no more than a few hundred J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) will
support showers and some sporadic lighting, near and behind a subtle
cold front forecast to shift southeastward across Nevada and
California this evening and overnight.

Ahead of the front, surface winds across the Central Valley continue
to exhibit a southeasterly component, which is contributing around
20 kt surface to 1km shear.  Until the front passes and low-level
winds veer, a small/brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out with one
of the stronger, low-topped convective updrafts.

In the wake of the front -- which should clear southern portions of
the Valley prior to midnight PST -- severe weather is not expected.

...Goss/Bentley.. 01/15/2023

$$

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