Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jan 14 2023 07:57:08

ACUS03 KWNS 140757
SWODY3
SPC AC 140756

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2023

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough is forecast to be centered over the central
Plains early Monday morning, before then progressing northeastward
and maturing into a closed mid-latitude cyclone. An attendant
surface low will take a similar track as the system becomes
increasingly vertically stacked. An associated cold front will
extend southward from this low, pushing eastward across the Mid MS
Valley throughout the day.  By early Tuesday morning, this cyclone
will likely be centered over Lake MI, with the cold front arcing
southeastward into Lower MI and then back southwestward to another
surface low over south-central OK.

Strong forcing for ascent is expected across the Mid MS Valley as
the maturing shortwave and associated cold front push through Monday
morning. Thermodynamic conditions ahead of the front will be
marginal at best, but modest elevated buoyancy is possible as a
result of cold mid-level temperatures. As a result, isolated
lightning flashes are possible. A few stronger convectively
augmented gusts are possible as well.

The active pattern will continue across the western CONUS, with
another shortwave trough expected to drop southward across CA during
the period. Cold mid-level temperatures and strong forcing for
ascent could result in a few updrafts deep enough to produce
lightning.

...Mosier.. 01/14/2023

$$

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