Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jan 14 2023 06:19:39

ACUS02 KWNS 140619
SWODY2
SPC AC 140617

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2023

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday.

....Synopsis...
A pair of shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the Four
Corners region and into the central Plains from Sunday morning into
early Monday morning. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of
second, more substantial shortwave, with a low developing over
southeast CO Sunday afternoon before then moving northeastward into
northeast KS by Monday morning. Moderate to strong low-level flow
will precede this shortwave and associated surface low, with the
strongest mass response anticipated Sunday night into early Monday
morning. Despite this strong low-level return flow, the quality of
the low-level moisture will be limited by a previous frontal
intrusion. As such, 60s dewpoints will likely remain confined to the
TX Coast, while mid 50s dewpoints reach into the ArkLaTex.

Isolated lightning flashes appear possible within this warm air
advection regime in the vicinity of the OK/AR/MO border
intersection. Additional lightning flashes are possible farther
north, closer to the surface low, where forcing for ascent will be
stronger and cooler mid-level temperatures will be in place. Strong
vertical shear is anticipated throughout the region from eastern
OK/western AR into northwest MO/southwest IA, but warm mid-level
temperatures and modest buoyancy should keep the severe potential
very low.

Farther west, isolated lightning flashes are possible throughout the
day amid the persistent forcing for ascent and cold mid-level
temperatures from northern AZ/southern UT into the Four Corners.
Additionally, another shortwave trough is expected to move into
northern CA late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Strong forcing
for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures may result in isolated
updrafts capable of lightning, particularly early Monday morning.

...Mosier.. 01/14/2023

$$

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