Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jan 13 2023 16:26:36

ACUS01 KWNS 131626
SWODY1
SPC AC 131624

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2023

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....Northern/central CA...
A modest-amplitude shortwave trough will shift inland across CA this
afternoon and into the northern Great Basin tonight. Cooler
mid-level temperatures and steepening lapse rates may support very
isolated thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening. Scant
buoyancy is expected owing to boundary-layer dew points only peaking
in the upper 40s to low 50s along the coast and into the Central
Valley. This in combination with increasingly veered low-level flow
should mitigate potential for organized convection.

....South FL...
Relatively low-topped convection persists in a pre-frontal
convective band. Weak mid-level lapse rates in the 12Z observed and
forecast soundings suggest convection will struggle to deepen in the
absence of appreciable height falls this afternoon. It is plausible
that no additional lightning will occur before convection shifts
east/south of the peninsula this evening.

...Grams/Wendt.. 01/13/2023

$$

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