Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jan 13 2023 12:09:34

ACUS01 KWNS 131209
SWODY1
SPC AC 131208

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0608 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2023

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur across central/south Florida today
and parts of central/northern California this afternoon/evening, but
severe thunderstorms are not expected.

....Synopsis...
Within an amplifying trough over the eastern CONUS, an embedded
shortwave trough will move eastward over central FL during the day,
as an associated surface cold front progresses from central FL this
morning to off the southeast FL coast by mid afternoon.  The richer
low-level moisture and larger buoyancy ahead of the front remain
confined to the eastern Gulf of Mexico and immediately coastal areas
of the FL Gulf coast.  Wind profiles are characterized by 30-40 kt
west-southwest flow in the low-mid levels, which suggests some
low-end potential for strong gusts near the coast today.  However,
buoyancy will likely remain rather limited over land, and the
potential for severe storms appears too low to add any
probabilities.

A midlevel trough over the eastern Pacific will move inland over
central/northern CA later today into this evening, with cooler
midlevel temperatures and steeper lapse rates.  Buoyancy will likely
remain weak, but should be sufficiently deep to support charge
separation and isolated lightning flashes with embedded convection
along and west of the primary baroclinic zone.

...Thompson/Jewell.. 01/13/2023

$$

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