Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jan 13 2023 09:48:36

ACUS48 KWNS 130948
SWOD48
SPC AC 130946

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2023

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

....DISCUSSION...
The upper pattern is forecast to remain progressive early next week,
as a series of strong shortwave troughs move across the CONUS. The
first shortwave will likely be centered over the central Plains
early D4/Monday, before continuing northeastward into the Mid MS
Valley while maturing. The returning low-level moisture is expected
to remain displaced south of the strongest forcing for ascent, with
60s dewpoints remain confined to the Lower MS Valley. Even so, a few
stronger storms are possible near the surface low across the Mid MS
Valley. In this area, cold mid-level temperatures and strong forcing
for ascent, both along the front and associated with the parent
shortwave trough, could favor the development of a line of
thunderstorms. Uncertainty regarding severe coverage precludes
introducing any probabilities with this outlook.

Another lower-latitude shortwave is expected to move across the
Southwest/northern Mexico on D5/Tuesday and through the southern
Plains on D6/Wednesday. Model guidance is in good agreement that a
strong mid-level jet will accompany this system, with 100+ kt at 500
mb likely across TX. However, this strong jet, as well as the colder
mid-level temperatures, are expected to lag well behind the surface
front and warm sector. Even so, a strong low-level jet is
anticipated over the warm sector, contributing to low-level wind
profiles that support severe thunderstorms. Uncertainty regarding
the evolution of this system remains high, particularly with how
warm sector thunderstorms will evolve given the modest buoyancy and
their displacement east of the strongest forcing for ascent. Some
portion of the region from east TX into the Lower MS Valley and
Mid-South may eventually need probabilities, but uncertainty remains
too high for any outlook areas at this forecast range.

This system is expected to continue maturing on D7/Thursday, with a
strong mid-level jet extending from the Lower MS Valley across the
TN Valley into the OH Valley. Thunderstorms are possible along and
ahead of an associated front sweeping eastward across the Southeast.
Limited buoyancy is anticipated, keeping severe potential low.

...Mosier.. 01/13/2023

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