Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jan 13 2023 08:27:59

FOUS30 KWBC 130827
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
327 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 13 2023 - 12Z Sat Jan 14 2023

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND ADJACENT MOUNTAINS...

The upper trough responsible for the heavy rainfall making its
onshore from Washington to northern California early this morning
will make its way inland today.  Strong vertical ascent has
already started over northern California and should become more
widespread and greater in magnitude as positive vorticity
advection and sufficient 700mb Q-vector convergence aloft approach
the coast and then proceeds inland through 18Z.  The IVT into
California still does not appear to be as strong as what just
impacted the Pacific Northwest yesterday, but the NAEFS still
shows IVT values >400 kg/m/s south of the Bay Area oriented from
the SSW-NNE. With precipitable water values largely in the range
between 0.75-1.00" and directed upslope into the coastal ranges by
40-50kt 850-700mb wind (and as far inland as the windward slopes
of the Sierra Nevada) periods of heavy rainfall are expected
today.  Rainfall rates >0.50"/hr are possible in areas where soils
remain exceptionally over saturated (NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-40cm soil
moisture percentiles >98% for most of the Slight Risk region).
Given an uptick in amounts...the northern boundary of the Slight
Risk area was pulled north to near Crescent City and extended to
just north of the Bay Area. Only minor tweaks were made to the
Marginal Risk around the Olympics where another 1-3" of rainfall
is forecast and where soils will be more sensitive after Thursday
rainfall.=20

Bann



Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7uy6eI2SY2tdCBpLNUXIBTVez_YwL88CSsmvf_5K18qj=
rFsbmdlUsBWlSBz9vF4Ro7Q1vhWch-q_4GHmxcJa3Mvj8Y4$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7uy6eI2SY2tdCBpLNUXIBTVez_YwL88CSsmvf_5K18qj=
rFsbmdlUsBWlSBz9vF4Ro7Q1vhWch-q_4GHmxcJanGxtkmI$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7uy6eI2SY2tdCBpLNUXIBTVez_YwL88CSsmvf_5K18qj=
rFsbmdlUsBWlSBz9vF4Ro7Q1vhWch-q_4GHmxcJaV7Quf5o$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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