Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jan 13 2023 07:46:03

ACUS03 KWNS 130746
SWODY3
SPC AC 130744

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2023

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday.

....Synopsis...
A shortwave trough is expected to progress eastward/northeastward
across the Four Corners and southern/central High Plains into the
southern/central Plains on Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis is
anticipated ahead of this shortwave, with a low developing over
southeast CO before moving eastward into south-central KS by Sunday
night and then northeastward into northeast KS by Monday morning.
Southerly low-level flow will precede this shortwave and associated
surface low. However, scouring of the low-level moisture return by a
previous frontal intrusion will limit the quality of the moisture
return, with 60s dewpoints likely remaining along the TX Coast. Mid
50s dewpoints are expected into the ArkLaTex.  A few lightning
flashes are possible in the OK/AR border vicinity early Monday
morning, but limited buoyancy should keep most updrafts too shallow
for lightning production.

Farther west, another shortwave trough is expected to move into
northern CA late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Strong forcing
for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures may result in isolated
updrafts capable of lightning, particularly early Monday morning.

...Mosier.. 01/13/2023

$$

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