Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jan 13 2023 00:43:33 ACUS01 KWNS 130043 SWODY1 SPC AC 130041 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.... ....SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may form late this evening into the overnight hours near the North Carolina Outer Banks vicinity, and pose at least some risk for producing damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. Otherwise, lingering thunderstorms farther west may continue to pose a risk for, mainly, locally damaging wind gusts this evening, but the severe weather potential is generally diminishing. ....01Z Update... Pre-frontal convection extending from the Virginia/Carolina Piedmont into the Florida Panhandle is preceded by a lingering warm but dry low-level environment, in a corridor roughly extending from the west central Florida Peninsula through the Georgia/Carolina coastal plain. Although model forecast soundings suggest this could modify some, mainly with moisture advection initially near or just below the 850 mb level, destabilization appears unlikely to support a substantive increase in convective intensities, which have been generally weakening. As the ongoing line of storms spreads eastward, the thermodynamic profiles will become less conducive to the risk for tornadoes, but downward momentum transfer near convection could continue to support potential for locally damaging wind gusts into mid/late evening. As a short wave impulse, within consolidating larger-scale mid-level troughing, pivots northeastward toward the southern Mid Atlantic coast, it does appear that associated forcing for ascent may contribute to new, intensifying thunderstorm development within a narrow plume of low-level moistening offshore of the south Atlantic coast into the North Carolina Outer Banks vicinity. This will coincide with strengthening lower/mid tropospheric flow, with vertical shear becoming supportive of organized convection including supercells. ...Kerr.. 01/13/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .