Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0061
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 12 2023 21:43:57

ACUS11 KWNS 122143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122143=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-122315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0061
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Alabama into southwest Georgia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 22...

Valid 122143Z - 122315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 22 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado threat across southeast Alabama into southwest
Georgia will be focused ahead of a long-lived supercell that has a
history of producing at least one tornado.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell across southeast AL has
persisted over the past several hours despite experiencing multiple
undercutting RFD surges. More recently, this storm has produced at
least one radar-confirmed tornado. While the duration of a tornado
may be limited due to the potential for additional disruptive RFD
surges, re-organization of the cell appears likely given 1) a
favorable downstream environment into southwest GA on the nose of a
high theta-e axis at the surface, and 2) the low probability of
destructive interference from convection within the storm's inflow
region. Consequently, this cell will continue to pose a tornado (as
well as damaging winds and severe hail) threat for at least the next
1-2 hours.

...Moore.. 01/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7W1H0bw4XJwxtXOoEoC2pRUBGOvXe6NyAYFylrtOCx5Le_pNuGYBBfuFIquSkH_0bGW5xpYQ9=
iz95Nu1RvbR0WwzT9g$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON   31768573 32018543 32238489 32378445 32288409 32088394
            31788392 31568394 31478412 31418466 31418510 31388557
            31518577 31768573=20


=3D =3D =3D
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