Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0057
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 12 2023 19:55:58

ACUS11 KWNS 121955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121955=20
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-122100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0057
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

Areas affected...middle Tennessee and northern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 121955Z - 122100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind and hail risk possible through the
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms has strengthened across middle
Tennessee as air mass recovery has led to around 500-1000 J/kg of
mixed layer CAPE analyzed in surface objective analysis and RAP
analysis as of 1940z. The main threats through the afternoon will be
for isolated damaging wind and hail, as low level shear is marginal.
Deep layer shear is more notable around 55 kts from KOHX, further
supporting the risk of severe hail up to 1 inch. Recent reports of
hail up to 1-1.5 inch have been received near Smyrna, Tennessee.
Need for a watch is uncertain but trends will continue to be
monitored.

...Thornton/Guyer.. 01/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5tNpbZMSqKkw9OZxTZNUwk7wk98Kh3bZ_HiHNzFg0rwAP1C2ChvP2zczPMQY5a0Mod3pzxRNZ=
LT-fNQp8dpaSGfNVSo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   34918798 35538771 36358694 36748631 36528593 36068573
            35628577 35258604 34878625 34668638 34458657 34308688
            34288718 34378754 34558787 34918798=20


=3D =3D =3D
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