Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jan 12 2023 16:57:25 ACUS01 KWNS 121657 SWODY1 SPC AC 121656 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue across portions of the Tennessee Valley into the Southeast. Several damaging wind gusts are likely, though occasional bouts of large hail and at least a few tornadoes are also expected. ....Tennessee Valley/Southeast States... A wavy/modestly broken quasi-linear line of strong/severe convection extends from eastern Tennessee southwestward into northeast/central Alabama and into southeast Mississippi, with much of it effectively ahead of a cold front. Surface dewpoints are commonly in the low 60s F and this will continue to adequately support severe-caliber storms in the presence of relatively cool mid-level temperatures and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. This is well-represented by a special 15z observed sounding from Birmingham AL. A mixed convective mode is expected to persist regionally, although somewhat more discrete storms are more viable across central/southern Alabama and southeast Mississippi/Florida Panhandle owing to cloud breaks and more modest forcing for ascent. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg), strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and some low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2) will support this mix of supercells and bowing segments. Damaging winds will be the most common threat, and semi-discrete supercells in the band will pose the threat for tornadoes, along with embedded circulations in line segments. The storms will spread eastward into/across Georgia and into the Piedmont of the Carolinas this evening, before weakening as the convection outpaces the unstable warm sector. ....Kentucky/Lower Ohio Valley into western/northern Tennessee... The fast-moving convective line from earlier this morning has largely diminished in intensity as it moved into a more stable air mass toward the Ohio/West Virginia border. While semi-plentiful/multiple corridors of convection will tend to further hinder destabilization, a pre-frontal reservoir of instability could influence additional severe storm development particularly across southern/eastern Kentucky into western/middle Tennessee this afternoon. ...Guyer/Thornton.. 01/12/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .