Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0052
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 12 2023 16:52:24

ACUS11 KWNS 121652
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121652=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-121745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0052
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

Areas affected...east central Alabama and western Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 121652Z - 121745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Tornado threat continues along the eastern advancing line
of storms which is expected to move into east central
Alabama/Georgia later today.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms continues to advance eastward
through northern Alabama. Within this line, transient circulations
have been noted on radar. Ahead of this line, the KMXX (Maxwell Air
Force Base) VAD profile depicts 0-1 km storm relative helicity
around 150-200 m2/s2. 15z RAOB from BMX indicates upstream 0-1km SRH
around 300 m2/s2. The wind field over eastern Alabama/Georgia is
expected to increase through the afternoon as flow aloft increases
in the next few hours. RAP analysis shows 850 mb winds increasing to
around 45-50 kts by 19-20z. Surface objective analysis indicates
surface based CAPE around 1000-1500 j/kg across this region and the
convective inhibition is reduced. This environment will continue to
be conducive to tornado development within the line of storms, with
the threat gradually spreading east through the afternoon. A Tornado
Watch downstream of WW17 will likely be needed for portions of
eastern Alabama and western Georgia this afternoon.

...Thornton/Guyer.. 01/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6j_yYk5hwPmI--sADmglRdSq39wb5ovRTuFc7Nedy8LZ_TPB2zvnfo269Cg47_g3dGtPgO7AP=
n2SKDScWlVYH-kPpCY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...

LAT...LON   32228624 32468645 32848643 33418613 33928581 34258553
            34608500 34648467 34618443 34608431 34468395 33988408
            33708415 33468428 33308438 33058449 32698472 32508486
            32178529 32108566 32118601 32228624=20


=3D =3D =3D
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