Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0051
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 12 2023 15:55:27

ACUS11 KWNS 121555
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121554=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-121730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0051
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0954 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

Areas affected...west-central AL...far east-central MS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 17...

Valid 121554Z - 121730Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 17 continues.

SUMMARY...Most favorable mesoscale environment for supercells and a
tornado risk is focused near the MS/AL border and into west-central
AL through 1130am CST.

DISCUSSION...Subjective mesoscale analysis shows temperatures
warming into the lower 70s over west-central AL to the east of a
broken band of storms with several quasi-discrete updrafts.  Surface
dewpoints are in the lower 60s and RAP forecast soundings indicate
around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE when modifying for current surface
observations.  Long hodographs will continue to promote a
supercellular storm mode.  In addition, around 200-250 m2/s2 0-0.5
km effective SRH is indicated.  Given this overlap of
buoyancy/shear, it appears the most favorable mesoscale environment
will be focused over west-central AL over the next 1-2 hours.  A
tornado risk will continue with any robust supercell.

...Smith.. 01/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8UZqOeb22ChIouPaS1TffTU6tMDviQGoje5RtiJ8_DBgFlxuV504Qwm4AK49uJ_hRXyb_E3lG=
2z21e0lghqyFBiK2sg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON   32058811 32088842 32278864 32468863 32898805 33098730
            32988701 32688698 32498712 32058811=20


=3D =3D =3D
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