Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0049
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 12 2023 15:02:25

ACUS11 KWNS 121502
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121501=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-121700-

Mesoscale Discussion 0049
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0901 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

Areas affected...central into eastern MS...west-central
AL...southwest AL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 17...

Valid 121501Z - 121700Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 17 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for a couple of tornadoes will continue this
morning, including the possibility for a strong tornado.  An
additional tornado watch will likely need to be considered for far
southeast MS into southwest and south-central AL later this morning.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic and single-site 88D data show a broken
band of embedded cluster and quasi-discrete supercells from 40 mi
WSW of Tuscaloosa extending southwestward to 30 mi W of Hattiesburg.
Analysis of upper-air RAOB data this morning shows relatively cool
mid-level profiles with -15.7 deg C at Birmingham and -14.1 deg C at
Jackson.  Although surface dewpoints are only in the lower 60s over
central AL and low-mid 60s in southern MS, the quality of the
moisture through a 100-mb deep layer above the surface is notable
when combined with the cool mid-level temperature profile.  RAP
forecast soundings this morning into the midday hours show buoyancy
around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE with large low-level hodographs.  As a
result, the mesoscale environment appears favorable for a tornado
risk from eastern and southeastern MS northeastward into
west-central AL over the next few couple of hours.  A strong tornado
is possible.  The activity over southeast LA and southern MS will
eventually shift eastward into far southeast MS and southwest AL
towards the midday.

...Smith.. 01/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_E76l9PhYEb9BhzNkms6JPxRGTfCnMZtmUmg-TgRvN4WdzMshlwXeKGOP8keRt6ulPppfqRIj=
WAJyHWGEibQ2zRf_X4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON   31938992 33208831 33468768 33378734 33048726 32758743
            31428925 31408985 31479003 31938992=20


=3D =3D =3D
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