Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0048
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 12 2023 14:29:23

ACUS11 KWNS 121429
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121428=20
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-121530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0048
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0828 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

Areas affected...northern and eastern KY...southern OH...far western
WV

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 121428Z - 121530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The air mass continues to destabilize ahead of a maturing
squall line moving quickly east-northeast across central and
northern KY.  The threat for isolated severe gusts (50-65 mph) and
accompanying wind damage will likely spread northeast into eastern
KY and far southern OH this morning.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a maturing squall line near the I-75
corridor as of 1425 UTC.  A 50-kt measured gust was observed in the
past hour at K612 (Lebanon-Springfield, KY) with the squall line.=20
Bowing segments embedded within the line will likely focus a
near-term severe threat given the strong low- to mid-level flow.=20
RAP forecast soundings show upwards of 500 J/kg MLCAPE immediately
ahead of the line in KY and weak instability will likely develop
northeastward in advance of the line over southern OH this morning.

...Smith/Guyer.. 01/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_JamufTCayd3cB-ic2rnL1a2u16U1lWXF-4jGdMTKPAbqqtiwiceb0RZ9S7Ks2RK8swiAjWln=
fBdlTX1QpmwZvhb3WM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   38858441 39288341 39368218 39028176 37768237 37318350
            37298420 37358472 38858441=20


=3D =3D =3D
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