Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 12 2023 09:50:22

ACUS48 KWNS 120950
SWOD48
SPC AC 120948

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Modest low-level moisture return should occur from Day 4/Sunday into
Day 5/Monday across parts of the southern Plains into the lower MS
Valley as a shortwave trough pivots over the Southwest into the
central CONUS. However, instability will likely remain quite weak
ahead of this shortwave trough, with low potential for organized
severe thunderstorms through Day 6/Tuesday.

Medium-range guidance shows reasonable agreement that another upper
trough/low will develop eastward across the southern/central Plains
on Day 7/Wednesday. Sufficient low-level moisture and instability
may be present ahead of this feature to support some risk for severe
thunderstorms across eastern portions of the southern Plains into
the lower MS Valley vicinity. If current model trends persist, then
inclusion of severe probabilities across a portion of these areas
may eventually be needed. The evolution of the upper trough/low
becomes more uncertain by Day 8/Thursday, but an isolated risk for
severe thunderstorms may continue over parts of the Southeast if
sufficient low-level moisture can return northward ahead of a cold
front. Regardless, predictability remains low at this extended time
frame.

...Gleason.. 01/12/2023

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