Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0045
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 12 2023 09:07:52

ACUS11 KWNS 120907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120907=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-121200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0045
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

Areas affected...north-central Louisiana into central Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 120907Z - 121200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to gradually increase in intensity and
coverage along the cold front, and may become severe through
morning. Hail, damaging gusts and brief tornadoes may occur.

DISCUSSION...A cold front continues to move rapidly eastward toward
western LA and AR, where dewpoints have risen into the mid 60s F and
temperatures remain near 70 F. Convection along the front which
initiated in TX continues to deepen now over northern LA, as forcing
for ascent increases. A capping inversion currently exists across
the warm sector, but lift along the front as well as cooling aloft
with the upper trough is forecast to lift out the cap. As such,
gradually increasing storms are likely, possibly becoming severe
over the next few hours.

Hodographs are mainly straightline near the front, but sufficient
SRH over 200 m2/s2 exists ahead of these storms to support
supercells and/or QLCS structures capable of damaging gusts or brief
tornadoes. Cold air aloft will also favor hail over 1.00".

...Jewell/Thompson.. 01/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4HlF2WeJ_1ojDja9u6EnzrqXTDN_KQFlm2m0emMHoYoJk_Zmd4qS0M7HOhEOmVcikeizuB44S=
jRCcGA7lTeP-ssqX1Q$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   32099326 32559272 33329134 33688996 33708897 33418864
            33038861 32548899 31949020 31519109 31259152 31139167
            31039190 31049250 31069303 31329333 31529341 31759343
            32099326=20


=3D =3D =3D
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