Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0043
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 12 2023 03:26:50

ACUS11 KWNS 120326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120326=20
TNZ000-ARZ000-MOZ000-120500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0043
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0926 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2023

Areas affected...Northern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 120326Z - 120500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected across
much of northern Arkansas late this evening.

DISCUSSION...Leading edge of large-scale forcing for ascent is
spreading across eastern OK into western AR late this evening.
Convection is responding accordingly along the northern gradient of
moisture as it returns across AR. Latest diagnostic data suggests
updrafts remain elevated where dew points are in the lower-mid 50s.
However, as dew points gradually rise into the upper 50s, to perhaps
near 60F there is some concern near-surface-based parcels will
become buoyant. While convection has gradually evolved into several
line segments, a few supercells remain evident, especially over
Logan County AR. Strong, deep westerly flow aloft should encourage
this activity to spread rapidly downstream across northern AR,
toward the MO Bootheel. Hail/wind are the primary threats, though
some tornado risk may evolve where updrafts encounter near-60F
surface dew points.

...Darrow/Hart.. 01/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!88KO3Bj2yZPFb3LiK7CxmYvHgdNdlpq6ElegipkFE1EBEdG4vcdNYG8br_Jl_gbZ4QCn_hjRf=
wkpd7X257njNcCu-Uc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   36049340 36539036 35329003 34769338 36049340=20


=3D =3D =3D
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