Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jan 11 2023 19:34:17

ACUS01 KWNS 111934
SWODY1
SPC AC 111932

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2023

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS AND INTO THE OZARKS...AND EASTWARD TO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong/marginally severe thunderstorms are possible late
tonight and early Thursday morning from northern Arkansas into parts
of the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley.

....Discussion...
Aside from a nudge northward of the risk area across southeastern
Missouri, no changes to the outlook appear necessary at this time,
with current forecast reasoning still reflective of expectations.
Showers and slightly elevated storms will likely develop near/after
midnight, initially over the Ozarks vicinity, and then expanding
eastward across the Mid Mississippi and into the Lower Ohio Valley
region, where limited -- but all-hazards -- severe potential may
evolve with a few of the strongest storms.

...Goss.. 01/11/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2023/

....Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley...
A southern-stream shortwave trough will emerge from the southern
Rockies/southern High Plains today and reach the Ozarks/ArkLaTex
late tonight, with surface cyclogenesis occurring tonight from the
Ozarks to the lower Ohio Valley in tandem with a northward-expanding
warm/moist sector. Surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s F
will become established late tonight as far north as the
Mid-South/western Kentucky vicinity.

The warm sector will be capped until late tonight, with the
moistening occurring beneath a plume of steepening mid-level lapse
rates. By around 06z tonight, the low-level moistening and forcing
for ascent within the left-exit region of the strong mid/upper-level
jet will support thunderstorm development across northern
Arkansas/far southern Missouri. Storms will subsequently move
northeastward toward western Kentucky and other parts of the lower
Ohio Valley by 09-12z.

The steep mid-level lapse rates (>8 C/km), MUCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg,
and effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt will support slightly elevated
convection (mix of clusters and some supercell structures) capable
of producing isolated large hail and damaging winds late tonight and
early Thursday.

$$

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