Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jan 11 2023 16:32:16

ACUS01 KWNS 111632
SWODY1
SPC AC 111630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2023

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late tonight and early
Thursday morning from northern Arkansas into parts of the mid
Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley.

....Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley...
A southern-stream shortwave trough will emerge from the southern
Rockies/southern High Plains today and reach the Ozarks/ArkLaTex
late tonight, with surface cyclogenesis occurring tonight from the
Ozarks to the lower Ohio Valley in tandem with a northward-expanding
warm/moist sector. Surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s F
will become established late tonight as far north as the
Mid-South/western Kentucky vicinity.

The warm sector will be capped until late tonight, with the
moistening occurring beneath a plume of steepening mid-level lapse
rates. By around 06z tonight, the low-level moistening and forcing
for ascent within the left-exit region of the strong mid/upper-level
jet will support thunderstorm development across northern
Arkansas/far southern Missouri. Storms will subsequently move
northeastward toward western Kentucky and other parts of the lower
Ohio Valley by 09-12z.

The steep mid-level lapse rates (>8 C/km), MUCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg,
and effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt will support slightly elevated
convection (mix of clusters and some supercell structures) capable
of producing isolated large hail and damaging winds late tonight and
early Thursday.

...Guyer/Thornton.. 01/11/2023

$$

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