Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jan 11 2023 12:33:13

ACUS01 KWNS 111233
SWODY1
SPC AC 111231

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2023

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY FROM NORTHERN AR TO WESTERN KY AND VICINITY...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop late tonight/Thursday
morning from northern Arkansas into parts of the mid
Mississippi/lower Ohio Valley region.

....Northern AR to western KY area overnight...
A lee cyclone will develop today and then move eastward near the
KS/OK border to the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers by the end of the
period, in advance of a progressive midlevel trough and associated
90 kt midlevel jet.  A modifying air mass with boundary-layer
dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s will spread as far northeast
as the Mid-South to western KY in the warm sector of the cyclone.
The majority of the warm sector will be capped until later
overnight, with the moistening occurring beneath a plume of steep
midlevel lapse rates.  By roughly 06z tonight, the low-level
moistening and forcing for ascent within the left-exit region of the
midlevel jet will support thunderstorm development across northern
AR, and storms will subsequently move northeastward toward western
KY by 09-12z.  The steep midlevel lapse rates (> 8 C/km), MUCAPE of
500-1500 J/kg, and effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt will support
slightly elevated convection (mix of clusters and some supercell
structures) capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging
winds late tonight and early Thursday.

...Thompson/Jewell.. 01/11/2023

$$

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