Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jan 11 2023 06:58:42 ACUS02 KWNS 110658 SWODY2 SPC AC 110657 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Thursday across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee/Ohio Valleys, and Southeast. Damaging winds should be the main threat, but a brief tornado or two may also occur. ....Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and Southeast... An upper trough will advance eastward Thursday from the lower/mid MS Valley across the eastern CONUS while amplifying. A 50-70+ kt mid-level west-southwesterly jet will overspread much of the Southeast and parts of the TN/OH Valleys through the day. A surface low is forecast to develop northeastward across the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes vicinity while deepening. A partially modified Gulf airmass will return northward ahead of a cold front across the lower MS Valley into parts of the TN/OH Valleys and Southeast. However, surface dewpoints will likely remain in the mid 50s to low 60s over most of the warm sector. Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period Thursday morning over parts of the Mid-South into the lower OH Valley in close proximity to the center of the upper trough/low. This convection will have access to ample deep-layer shear attendant to the upper trough, which should promote updraft organization and a threat for mainly isolated damaging winds. But, instability will likely remain quite weak given the modest moisture return and limited daytime heating. Even so, weak destabilization will probably occur ahead of the morning activity as mid-level temperatures cool with the eastward translation of the upper trough. Somewhat greater instability should develop with southward extent across the central Gulf Coast states. Most guidance indicates that thunderstorms will gradually increase in coverage and intensity as they move eastward across the Southeast and TN Valley Thursday afternoon. Given the cold frontal forcing and enhanced low-level flow, isolated to scattered damaging winds will likely be the primary severe threat with this mainly linear convection. A brief tornado or two also appears possible with embedded circulations, even though the low-level flow will veer to a more westerly component through the day, gradually reducing 0-1 km SRH. Latest guidance suggests that enough instability may be present for a continued threat of damaging winds across parts of eastern GA into western SC and perhaps NC. Severe probabilities have accordingly been expanded eastward as a result. Convection should eventually weaken with eastward extent across the OH Valley into the Carolinas, GA, and north FL Thursday evening/night as it outpaces the low-level moisture return. ...Gleason.. 01/11/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .