Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jan 11 2023 05:43:44 ACUS01 KWNS 110543 SWODY1 SPC AC 110542 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN AR INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop late tonight into Thursday morning across northern Arkansas into parts of the mid Mississippi/lower Ohio Valley region. ....Arkansas into the mid MS/lower OH Valleys... A rather strong mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the southern Plains eastward to the mid-MS Valley later today into tonight. An associated surface low will move from the central High Plains into the lower OH Valley by early Thursday morning, as a cold front moves through the central/southern Plains. Low-level moisture will stream northward today into parts of AR and the mid MS/lower OH Valley, in advance of the cold front. Moisture quality will be relatively modest and the warm sector will likely remain capped through early evening. Guidance varies considerably regarding the location and coverage of thunderstorm development tonight, though isolated to widely scattered storms are eventually expected overnight near and north of the warm front and surface low track. Initial development will likely be somewhat elevated, with strong deep-layer flow/shear supporting some organized storm potential. MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, cold temperatures aloft, and relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support some hail potential with the stronger storms. As low-level moisture gradually improves, convection could become rooted closer to the surface as it spreads across the mid-MS and lower OH Valleys, resulting in an increased potential for locally damaging gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Dean/Supinie/Squitieri.. 01/11/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .