Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jan 11 2023 00:57:42

ACUS01 KWNS 110057
SWODY1
SPC AC 110056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2023

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low for the
remainder of tonight.

....California into the southern Great Basin...
Low-topped convection is ongoing this evening across parts of
central/northern CA into the Sierras. While deep-layer flow/shear
has weakened compared to earlier today, cold temperatures aloft and
modest effective shear may continue to support weakly organized
convection capable of small hail and gusty winds for a few hours
this evening, though the threat for severe thunderstorms has
diminished. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to decrease later
tonight as midlevel temperatures begin to warm in response to a
shortwave upper ridge building into the region.

Farther east into western UT and northwest AZ, some uptick in
lightning activity has recently been noted with a frontal band of
convection moving out of the southern Great Basin. Strong low-level
flow (40+ kt at 1 km AGL per recent VWPs) will support a threat of
gusty winds with this convection as it spreads eastward this
evening, though very meager downstream instability is expected to
limit the organized severe-thunderstorm threat.

...Dean.. 01/11/2023

$$

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