Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 10 2023 21:24:10

ACUS01 KWNS 102124
SWODY1
SPC AC 102122

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2023

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CALIFORNIA...AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHERN
UTAH/NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA VICINITY...

....SUMMARY...
A strong storm or two will remain possible across parts of
southern/central California this afternoon, where gusty winds or a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out. A few storms capable of producing
strong to severe wind gusts will also be possible across parts of
southeast Nevada, northwest Arizona, and southwest Utah.

....Discussion...
Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms continue across much
of California, while the primary frontal convective band shifts
southeastward across southern California.  Some diurnal convective
enhancement may result in a gusty winds, or even a brief/weak
tornado.

Meanwhile, strong to severe gusts remain possible across portions of
the Nevada/Utah/northwestern Arizona vicinity, with a couple of the
more intense storms spreading west-to-east across the Great Basin.
Given persistence of the limited risk, no changes to the outlook
areas appear necessary at this time.

...Goss.. 01/10/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2023/

....Central/southern California...
Cloud breaks, diurnal heating, and steepening mid-level lapse rates
(particularly over central California) should allow for some uptick
in more cellular/isolated convection into this afternoon within the
post-frontal environment. A couple of locally damaging thunderstorm
wind gusts and/or a brief tornado will remain possible into this
afternoon over the interior valley and/or near the coast. However, a
tendency for veering low-level winds and weakening convergence
should lead to a diminished potential over time.

....Southern Great Basin...
Coincident with the approach of the upstream shortwave trough and
upper jet exit region, there will be a modest increase in low-level
moisture immediately ahead of the cold front this afternoon. Surface
heating/steepening of low-level lapse rates could support some
convectively enhanced wind gusts late this afternoon/early evening
via the downward transfer of 50+ kt flow in association with the
forced band of convection near the advancing front.

$$

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