Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 10 2023 17:42:39

AWUS01 KWNH 101742
FFGMPD
CAZ000-110138-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0037
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1242 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2023

Areas affected...parts of southern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101738Z - 110138Z

Summary...Continued flash flood potential is expected through 02Z
or so - initially in/near the Transverse Ranges and Los Angeles
Metro area before shifting southeastward toward the San Diego
County Mountains.

Discussion...A relatively focused band of deep convection
continues in tandem with a landfalling atmospheric river currently
over the Transverse Ranges near Los Angeles County.  Objective
analyses have indicates that a modest amount of instability (500
J/kg MUCAPE) has developed inland toward the coastal ranges, which
is continuing to support occasional heavier rainfall rates
(exceeding 0.5 inch/hr) due to the deeper convection.  Most of the
deeper convection is focused along a surface cold front on the
northwest side of the Los Angeles Metro, although heavier rain
rates are now beginning to materialize just north of Los Angeles
in terrain-favored areas.  These rain rates are occurring in areas
that have experienced 5+ inch rainfall amounts over the past 24
hours along with numerous instances of flash flooding and
debris/mud slides.

The ongoing scenario (with occasional convective development
resulting in 1-2 inch rainfall amounts) should continue as the
cold front (and attendant axis of convection) translate
southeastward along the southern California coast.  Heavier
rainfall is expected to persist near Los Angeles over the next 2-4
hours (through 22Z) before the axis begins to affect the
Peninsular Ranges and San Diego County in the 22-02Z timeframe.=20
The risk of flash flooding is the greatest where heavier rain can
fall on burn scars and other low-lying/sensitive grounds.  Local
rain totals of 3 inches cannot be completely ruled out through 02Z
especially along favored terrain areas.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5rbQAyQeR56IG44aSikSO7SObcCKWWPWc0nhD3JK8yaEFydw98blK4t-Z1r-wzwwrU4u=
Jqlw3dXeX-D_bC9EHLHiNSM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...SGX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35101855 34861749 34161658 33631625 32901635=20
            32611650 32551713 32871730 33241746 33681830=20
            33991883 34181939 34471963 34901933 35051907=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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